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Global oil inventories shrinking on robust demand: IEA

Global oil inventories shrinking on robust demand: IEA

Global oil inventories shrinking on robust demand: IEA

The IEA boosted its forecast on stronger-than-expected consumption in Europe and the U.S., and said that inventories of refined products are subsiding to their five-year average. The cartel has never seemed less cohesive than it does in this new oil reality, where production is surging from non-conventional sources and suppliers, and prices are trading at less than half of what they were just a few years back. In August, the IEA has anticipated annual growth would hit 1.5 mb/d, again an increase on July's 1.4 mb/d forecast.

"This is due to the shooting up of demand for prompt-loading barrels and amid increasing sentiment that the oil market will rebalance over the next year with a major drawdown in crude and product stocks", Opec said in the report. Benchmark Brent crude rose 53 cents a barrel or almost 1 percent, to trade at $54.80.

Refinery use fell a further 2.0% on the week due to the continuing impact of outages as flooding caused substantial damage, although markets had been expecting a recovery in capacity use for the week.

Opec is in the midst of a deal with non-Opec producers including Russian Federation to cut production by 1.8m barrels per day until March 2018.

Tuesday's rise came as the latest Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries report indicated oil output from the cartel decreased last month for the first time since March.

Some bearish investors are saying the OPEC data was not a true assessment of production because the numbers were lowered by unrest in Libya which contributed the country's 112,300-barrel decline in August's production.

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Supply is also said to have been hampered by Hurricane Harvey in the US, which caused refineries to shut.

However, in its monthly report released, yesterday, OPEC stated that the world economic growth had been revised up for 2017 to 3.5 per cent from 3.4 per cent, while the growth forecast for 2018 remains unchanged at 3.4per cent.

OPEC has raised its global oil demand outlook to a 96.77 million barrels a day for 2017 and a 98.12 million barrels a day for 2018.

NYMEX contract values suggest that a range of $39 bbl to $63 bbl encompasses the market expectation for the December WTI prices at the 95% confidence level.

Also, the price of OPEC basket of 14 crudes, including Nigeria's Bonny Light, stood at $51.82 per barrel. In July, OECD stocks declined by 19 million barrels to 3.02 billion barrels but stocks remain 219 million barrels above the 5-year average.

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