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Gains For Crude Oil Prices Capped By Measured Dollar Recovery

Gains For Crude Oil Prices Capped By Measured Dollar Recovery

Gains For Crude Oil Prices Capped By Measured Dollar Recovery

"The bulls will hype up the data for sure, but the market fundamental hasn't changed", said Gao Jian, an energy analyst at SCI International.

With the OPEC giving up support to the oil prices, the prices swung this way and that during the course of the month.

Experts also believe that there is a clear risk that inventory normalization will not take place until the end of March next year when the OPEC cut will come into force. Under the November 30 OPEC agreement, Venezuela agreed to cut its production by 95,000 bpd to 1.972 million bpd beginning in January. Next year's average forecast is $2.52, pointing to another 92% growth.

Still, there are still no visible signs of tightness in the market.

OPEC and non-OPEC technical committee on production enforcement was said to have examined the scenario including Nigeria and Libya's exempt in the production cuts. This roughly translates to an increase of about 0.4-0.5 mbpd from these two and negates almost half of the Opec's 1.2 mbpd cut.

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Even if Russian pipeline export is also declining, it can have only a slight effect on global prices due to the influence of other factors. That makes Venezuela the third largest supplier of crude to the US, after Canada's 3.556 million bpd and Saudi Arabia's 1.02 million bpd. So if demand rises over time and Opec sticks to its deal in the longer term, we see a forward price anchor for WTI in the $45 to $50/bbl range and a backwardated structure of $3 to $7/bbl. The revisions have been largely prompted due the fast rebounding shale oil production in the US. The number of oil drilling rigs decreased by 2, or by 0.26 percent - to 756 units.

Crude oil booked a small loss today following a seven-day rally as rising production from members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) weighs on prices. However, if there is a big change in the horizontal rig count in the US, bringing the number down or stock draws are continued or the OPEC production limits are increased, then the situation and pricing could be substantially impacted.

In addition, a window has opened for USA crude exports to Asia, after prices made it uneconomical to send US supplies offshore in recent months. Historically, Venezuela's basket set its highest weekly average ever on July 18, 2008, when it hit $126.46 before economies around the world began crashing under the weight of expensive oil.

In 2010, the United States imported 983 million barrels of oil from Nigeria.

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